Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 88 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
28/0228Z from Region 2524 (N14W88). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (29
Mar, 30 Mar, 31 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 567 km/s at 28/1622Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 27/2140Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
27/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 118 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Mar) and quiet levels
on days two and three (30 Mar, 31 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Mar 088
Predicted   29 Mar-31 Mar 085/085/085
90 Day Mean        28 Mar 100

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Mar  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Mar  010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar  009/008-006/006-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/10/10