La Niņa conditions are present and slightly favored to persist (~55%
chance) through winter 2016-17.
La Niņa conditions were observed during October, with negative sea
surface temperature (SST) anomalies in early November stretching across
most of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean
[Fig. 1]. With the exception of the Niņo1+2 region, the Niņo region
indices remained negative over the last month, with the latest weekly
value of the Niņo-3.4 index at -0.8°C
[Fig. 2]. The upper-ocean heat content also remained below average
during October
[Fig. 3], reflecting below-average temperatures at depth
[Fig. 4]. Convection was suppressed over the central tropical
Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia
[Fig. 5]. The lower-level easterly winds were weakly enhanced near
and west of the International Date Line, and anomalously westerly
upper-level winds were mainly west of the International Date Line.
Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system reflected weak La Niņa
conditions.
The multi-model averages favor La Niņa conditions (3-month average
Niņo-3.4 index less than or equal to -0.5°C) continuing through the
winter
[Figs. 6] and
[7]. Given the current atmospheric and oceanic conditions, along
with model forecasts, the forecaster consensus favors the continuation
of weak La Niņa conditions through December-February (DJF) 2016-17. At
this time, the consensus favors La Niņa to be short-lived, with
ENSO-neutral favored beyond DJF. La Niņa conditions are present and
slightly favored to persist (~55% chance) through winter 2016-17 (click
CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each
3-month period).
La Niņa is likely to affect temperature and precipitation across the
United States during the upcoming months (the
3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday November 17th).
Seasonal outlooks generally favor above-average temperatures and
below-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United
States, and below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation in
the northern tier of the United States.
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and
their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are
updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El
Niņo/La Niņa Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts
are also updated monthly in the
Forecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional
perspectives and analysis are also available in an
ENSO blog.
The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 08 December 2016 .
To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic
Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to:
ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
College Park, MD 20740
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