Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (01
Nov, 02 Nov, 03 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 589 km/s at 31/0008Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 31/0005Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
31/0300Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 21357 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (01 Nov,
02 Nov, 03 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Oct 077
Predicted   01 Nov-03 Nov 078/076/074
90 Day Mean        31 Oct 087

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct  013/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov  010/010-008/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    20/20/25