Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04
Nov, 05 Nov, 06 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 441 km/s at 02/2246Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 03/1933Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 02/2120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 4359 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (05 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (06 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Nov 076
Predicted   04 Nov-06 Nov 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        03 Nov 087

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov  012/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Nov  015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov  008/010-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    40/20/10