Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (11
Nov, 12 Nov, 13 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 462 km/s at 10/1823Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 10/1639Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at
10/1402Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1032 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (11 Nov, 12
Nov) and unsettled to active levels on day three (13 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Nov 080
Predicted   11 Nov-13 Nov 080/080/080
90 Day Mean        10 Nov 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov  014/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov  021/080-018/080-015/080

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor Storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/20