‘Barbell’ Strategy
El-Erian described his investment approach as a “barbell” strategy, favoring assets at both ends of the risk spectrum while holding fewer in the middle such as government and corporate bonds, stocks and emerging-market assets. Benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields dropped to an all-time low in July, and the S&P 500 Index rallied to a record high in August.
A “moderate” investor may have 5 percent in cash, while a “conservative” portfolio would allocate 30 percent, based on asset allocation models compiled by Charles Schwab Corp.
Prior to moving to Allianz in 2014, El-Erian was chief executive and co-chief investment officer along with Bill Gross at Pacific Investment Management Co. The Pimco Total Return Fund grew into the world’s biggest mutual fund during their tenure. It was as large as $293 billion in 2013 and is now $84.4 billion. Allianz is Pimco’s parent. Gross is now at Janus Capital Group Inc.
Financial markets have “decoupled” from the economic problems of the world, such as the British vote in June to leave the European Union, El-Erian said.
“They’ve been conditioned to believe, over and over again, that central banks can shield them,” he said.
While there’s a chance that economic fundamentals will improve and validate asset prices, a more likely scenario is that valuations will decline and lead to financial instability, he said.
“The probabilities are now starting to tip in the likelihood of a bad outlook,” El-Erian said. “They’re starting to tip in favor of low growth, giving way to periods of recession. This is a better time to be a seller of stocks than a buyer.”