Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Oct,
12 Oct, 13 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 415 km/s at 10/1903Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 10/1832Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
10/1453Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4646 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (11 Oct, 12 Oct)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (13 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Oct 102
Predicted   11 Oct-13 Oct 100/100/100
90 Day Mean        10 Oct 088

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct  007/008-008/008-012/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/35
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20

Radio Events Observed 10 Oct 2016
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0102   0104    250          0102        0002  
0106   0107    360          0107        0001  
0055   0055    110          0055        0000  
0659   0659    450          0659        0000  
1004   1004    120          1004        0000  
1255   1255    260          1255        0000  
1305   1306    210          1306        0001  
1623   1623    540          1623        0000  
2354   2354    120          2354        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.