Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (21
Oct, 22 Oct, 23 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 465 km/s at 19/2324Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
20/1758Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
20/0712Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 38252 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (21 Oct), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (22 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (23
Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Oct 075
Predicted   21 Oct-23 Oct 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        20 Oct 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Oct  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct  005/005-016/022-018/024

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/35/35
Minor Storm           01/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/40/30