Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25
Oct, 26 Oct, 27 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 455 km/s at 24/0159Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 24/1341Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
24/1339Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 974 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on days one and two (25 Oct, 26
Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (27 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Oct 075
Predicted   25 Oct-27 Oct 075/074/073
90 Day Mean        24 Oct 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct   NA/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct  016/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct  028/040-025/040-018/024

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/45/40
Minor Storm           20/25/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    35/35/30