Report of Solar Geophysical Activity
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2016 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Sep, 03 Sep, 04 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 604 km/s at 01/1855Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 01/2030Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 01/0609Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (02 Sep) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep). III. Event probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep Class M 20/20/20 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 Sep 095 Predicted 02 Sep-04 Sep 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 01 Sep 084 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep 022/029 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 011/015-009/012-009/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/15 Major-severe storm 20/15/15 Radio Events Observed 01 Sep 2016 A. 245 MHz Bursts Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak Duration 0254 0254 180 0254 0000 1151 1151 140 1151 0000 1302 1302 110 1302 0000 2134 2134 250 2134 0000 B. 245 MHz Noise Storms No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed. www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-radiation-storm www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales
|