Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently one numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (06 Sep, 07 Sep, 08 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 748 km/s at 04/2346Z. Total IMF
reached 6 nT at 05/1847Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 05/1628Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 56842 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Sep) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (07 Sep, 08 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Sep 094
Predicted   06 Sep-08 Sep 095/095/095
90 Day Mean        05 Sep 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep  020/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep  014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep  011/012-010/010-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    15/10/10