Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Sep,
10 Sep, 11 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 523 km/s at 08/0043Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 08/0400Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
08/0437Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 14152 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (09 Sep,
10 Sep, 11 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Sep 095
Predicted   09 Sep-11 Sep 095/095/092
90 Day Mean        08 Sep 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep  008/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Sep  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep  009/008-008/008-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/20