Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Sep,
14 Sep, 15 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 348 km/s at 12/0035Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 12/0923Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
12/0042Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6738 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (13 Sep, 14 Sep)
and quiet levels on day three (15 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Sep 087
Predicted   13 Sep-15 Sep 082/082/080
90 Day Mean        12 Sep 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep  007/008-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/15/10