Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Sep,
21 Sep, 22 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 458 km/s at 19/2058Z. Total IMF reached 22
nT at 19/2022Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
19/2048Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (20 Sep), quiet to
active levels on day two (21 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (22
Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Sep 083
Predicted   20 Sep-22 Sep 085/085/085
90 Day Mean        19 Sep 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep  010/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep  015/020-010/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/15/15
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/20/20