Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (30
Sep, 01 Oct, 02 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at active to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 766 km/s at 29/2013Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 29/0350Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 29/0826Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 17486 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (30 Sep), unsettled
to minor storm levels on day two (01 Oct) and unsettled to active levels
on day three (02 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Sep 083
Predicted   30 Sep-02 Oct 081/078/080
90 Day Mean        29 Sep 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep  024/039
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep  028/046
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct  024/038-024/030-017/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/30
Minor Storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor Storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    35/30/15