Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
14/1046Z. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Aug,
16 Aug, 17 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 636 km/s at 13/2107Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
13/2257Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
13/2347Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1017 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (15 Aug), quiet to active levels on day
two (16 Aug) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (17 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Aug 073
Predicted   15 Aug-17 Aug 074/074/074
90 Day Mean        14 Aug 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug  009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug  006/005-013/016-019/024

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/35
Minor Storm           01/15/30
Major-severe storm    01/05/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/05
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    15/55/70

SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #17-33
2017 August 13 at 9:16 p.m. MDT (2017 August 14 0316 UTC)

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****

Summary For August 7-13

No space weather storms were observed.

Outlook For August 14-20

G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 17-18 Aug due to the arrival of a recurrent, positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream.