Report of Solar Geophysical Activity
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2017 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 21/0316Z from Region 2672 (N07E61). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Aug, 23 Aug, 24 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 770 km/s at 21/0311Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 21/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 21/2006Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 52010 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (23 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (24 Aug). III. Event probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug Class M 25/25/25 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 Aug 087 Predicted 22 Aug-24 Aug 089/089/089 90 Day Mean 21 Aug 076 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug 021/025 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Aug 011/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug 011/012-008/008-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/15 Major-severe storm 35/20/15 Radio Events Observed 21 Aug 2017 A. 245 MHz Bursts Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak Duration 0717 0717 250 0717 0000 0717 0718 350 0717 0001 1038 1038 110 1038 0000 1958 1958 100 1958 0000 2056 2056 100 2056 0000 B. 245 MHz Noise Storms No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.
For current space weather conditions please refer to:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-radiation-storm www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales
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