Artist's impression of
a large meteor impact(Credit:
Fredrik/NASA)
The Earth is regularly peppered with small,
harmless asteroid impacts, but there's an estimated 13,000 giant
asteroids, most of which we can't find yet, that could potentially
release cataclysmic destruction on the planet. Here's how the White
House plans to locate, track, and deflect or destroy them.
Space is a vast, mainly empty expanse, but ours is
most certainly not the only giant rock hurtling through it.
Earth's orbit frequently crosses paths with asteroids of various
sizes – NASA tracked some 556 atmospheric fireballs caused by
meteorites between 1 and 20 meters in diameter over a 19-year
period between 1994 and 2013.
These were all harmless enough, and indeed the vast
majority of near-Earth objects, or NEOs, that enter our
atmosphere are small enough to burn up in the atmosphere without
causing any problems. But there are plenty of bigger, faster and
denser space rocks out there.
Take a look at
this incredible compilation of videos of what a single
asteroid 20 meters across can do when it hits our atmosphere.
The
2013 Chelyabinsk meteor exploded about 30 kilometers above
the Earth's surface like a 500-kiloton bomb, releasing nearly 30
times more energy than the Hiroshima atom bomb over a small
Russian city. It hospitalized 1,500 people, a remarkably small
toll.
Back in 1903, the famous Tunguska impact happened,
again over Russia although thankfully in a sparsely populated
area. A meteor somewhere over 60 meters wide detonated over a
forested area, flattening 80 million trees across some 2,000
square miles of forest. The blast shock, it's estimated, would
have measured 5.0 on the Richter scale.
And in relative terms,
those two were babies. In the last 10,000 years, we've been
hit by at least 8 asteroids that left impact craters more than
100 meters across, including one in Argentina with a 4.5
kilometer diameter.
If you're prepared to go back millions of years, you
start finding confirmed impact craters 300 kilometers across.
There's some evidence suggesting there's a 600-kilometer wide
crater in Australia's Northern territory, and dozens upon dozens
of craters more than 20 kilometers wide. These things would have
rained utter destruction on everything beneath them, unleashing
power many times beyond the scope of the world's entire nuclear
arsenal and causing enormous climate and ecological shifts,
including mass extinctions and giant glacial melts.
Large meteors will hit Earth again. It's only a
matter of time. And while we may have a few technological ideas
on how to deflect a big space rock away before it hits us, we
still don't have anywhere near a comprehensive set of
information about the Near Earth Objects we stand a chance of
being hit by.
After two decades of searching, only about 28
percent of the estimated total number of NEOs bigger than 140
meters across have been found and tracked. That's far short of
the 90 percent that US Congress directed NASA to get a handle on
by 2020, and it leaves a global blind spot of more than 9,000
potential extinction-level threats that we could potentially do
something about if we gave ourselves enough warning.
To give you a sense of the scale of the problem,
here's a NASA chart showing the orbits of currently known,
potentially dangerous asteroids with orbits that bring them
close to Earth. The outer ring is Jupiter, and this chart only
represents the small percentage of these objects we're currently
able to track.
In December 2016, the US White House released its
National NEO Preparedness Strategy, a curt 19-page document
showing that it understands the problematic potential of NEOs
and is working toward addressing it, albeit at the speed of
politics.
It details seven strategic goals:
- Enhance NEO detection and tracking capabilities.
- Develop methods for deflecting or disrupting incoming
asteroids.
- Improve modeling and predictions capabilities.
- Develop emergency procedures for NEO impact scenarios.
- Establish impact response and recovery procedures.
- Leverage and support international co-operation.
- Establish co-ordination and communication protocols and
thresholds for taking action.
Certainly the most urgent aspects would appear to be
the first two. In this regard the paper suggests one way to
greatly speed up the detection, tracking and categorization of
the missing NEOs would be to build a space-based observatory –
an exciting possibility for astronomers in and of itself.
In terms of dealing with imminent asteroid
collisions, the paper suggests starting out with a fast-response
reconnaisance craft that could send back critical information on
an approaching NEO's composition, mass and structure to help
with decision-making on what the next step should be.
At this point, assuming we've got the time to act,
the next step would be to decide whether to try to deflect it,
using a "kinetic impactor" that could use fast gravity
slingshots and orbital transfers to build up speed and knock the
thing off course like a pool ball. This would require very
precise aim, as well as high-acceleration maneuvering capability
to make sure of a direct hit on a very small, fast-moving
target.
For bigger objects or ones that are detected with
little time to spare, a "disruption" technique might be the best
hope of disaster mitigation. This is an effort to break the
asteroid into smaller pieces that might do less harm when they
hit.
Either of these ideas will require gigantic amounts
of energy, as well as a huge planning, construction and
co-ordination effort.
This is obviously a tricky problem in terms of
funding. The potential consequences of a decent sized asteroid
hit are enormous ... just ask the dinosaurs, who, it's believed,
were wiped out by a 10-kilometer wide rock impact that,
according to a report by NPR,
briefly made the Earth's surface act like a liquid, flinging
up a "splash" of rock from as much as six miles below the
surface.
On the other hand, the chances of it happening in a
given political term are very low. So it's good to know the
folks in charge are at least taking this sort of thing
seriously.