Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
13/2005Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (14 Jul, 15 Jul, 16 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 463 km/s at 12/2138Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 666 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (14 Jul, 16
Jul) and unsettled to active levels on day two (15 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jul 092
Predicted   14 Jul-16 Jul 092/092/092
90 Day Mean        13 Jul 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul  007/008-015/018-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/20
Minor Storm           05/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    30/50/30

Radio Events Observed 13 Jul 2017
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0413   0413    100          0413        0000  
0456   0456    140          0456        0000  
0620   0620    140          0620        0000  
0627   0627    100          0627        0000  
0700   0701    130          0700        0001  
1729   1730    310          1730        0001  
2008   2008    170          2008        0000  
2217   2217    180          2217        0000  
2227   2228    310          2227        0001  
2233   2233    130          2233        0000  
2236   2241    1000         2236        0005  
2244   2245    200          2244        0001  
2252   2253    150          2252        0001  
2256   2259    1000         2256        0003  
2310   2310    130          2310        0000  
2338   2339    190          2339        0001  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak
0406   0706    780          0415