Electrical Generation Expected to Fall During Cooler Summer

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By Editors of Power Engineering

 

Cooler-than-normal temperatures predicted for this summer are expected to cause summer generation to fall 3.3 percent year-over-year in the third quarter, according to the latest short-term energy forecast from the Energy Information Administration.

When combined with warmer-than-normal temperatures in the first quarter – which resulted in a 1.2 percent year-over-year decline – overall electrical generation is expected to decline 1.2 percent for 2017 as a whole. The next year should see an increase of 1.6 percent.

The share of total utility-scale generation from natural gas is expected to fall from an average of 34 percent in 2016 to less than 32 percent in 2017 and 2018 as a result of higher natural gas prices. Specifically, the Henry Hub natural gas spot price, $3.15 per million BTUs at the end of 2016, is expected to reach $3.16/MMBtu in 2017 and $3.41/MMBtu in 2018.

Coal’s share should rise from 30 percent last year to 31 percent in 2017 and 2018.

Renewable generation is forecast to provide nine percent of generation in 2017 and 10 percent in 2018. Nuclear is expected to remain unchanged at just under 20 percent.

Coal exports for the first quarter of 2017 rose 58 percent from the same quarter last year, due largely to bankrupt coal producers completing reorganizations or being acquired. However, exports are expected to slow through the rest of the year, resulting in a 19 percent increase for all of 2017.

Wind generating capacity is expected to grow from 81 GW at the end of 2016 to 102 GW by the end of 2018. Solar, likewise, should grow from 21 GW at the end of 2016 to 32 GW by the end of 2018.

Carbon dioxide emissions, which are sensitive to weather, economic growth and energy prices, are slated to fall 0.7 percent in 2017 and rise 2.2 percent in 2018. 

 

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