Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (13 Jun, 14 Jun, 15 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 550 km/s at 12/1943Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 11/2108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
12/0902Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (13 Jun, 14 Jun)
and quiet to active levels on day three (15 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jun 075
Predicted   13 Jun-15 Jun 074/073/072
90 Day Mean        12 Jun 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun  014/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jun  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun  009/010-008/008-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/25
Minor Storm           05/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/20

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****

Summary For June 5-11

G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels were observed on 11 June due to recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS influence.

Outlook For June 12-18

G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 16 June due to anticipated recurrent CH HSS effects.