Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 79 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (21 Mar, 22 Mar, 23 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 333 km/s at 20/2033Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
20/1405Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
20/1501Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 459 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Mar), quiet to active
levels on day two (22 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (23 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Mar 073
Predicted   21 Mar-23 Mar 073/074/074
90 Day Mean        20 Mar 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar  008/008-009/012-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/35
Minor Storm           05/05/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/30/60

SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #17-12
2017 March 19 at 9:23 p.m. MDT (2017 March 20 0323 UTC)

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****

Summary For March 13-19

No space weather storms were observed.

Outlook For March 20-26

G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 23 March due to activity from a recurrent positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream.