Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 86 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
27/1820Z from Region 2645 (S09E59). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (28 Mar, 29 Mar)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (30 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 720 km/s at 27/2010Z. Total IMF
reached 19 nT at 27/0752Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-14 nT at 27/0827Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 7934 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on day one (28 Mar), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (29 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm
levels on day three (30 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
Class M    15/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Mar 083
Predicted   28 Mar-30 Mar 084/083/082
90 Day Mean        27 Mar 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar  030/059
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar  029/040-025/035-020/024

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/35
Minor Storm           35/30/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/25/25