Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
07/1436Z from Region 2673 (S09W58). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Sep, 09
Sep, 10 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 666 km/s at 07/1156Z. Total IMF reached 16
nT at 07/0015Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
07/0600Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 352 pfu at 07/0410Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5443 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to severe storm levels on days one and two (08 Sep, 09
Sep) and active to minor storm levels on day three (10 Sep). Protons are
expected to cross threshold on days one and two (08 Sep, 09 Sep) and are
expected to cross threshold on day three (10 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    50/50/50
Proton     99/99/95
PCAF       red

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Sep 129
Predicted   08 Sep-10 Sep 125/125/120
90 Day Mean        07 Sep 080

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep  018/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Sep  021/032
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep  035/065-031/050-021/030

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/40
Minor Storm           35/35/20
Major-severe storm    50/50/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    55/60/45

Radio Events Observed 07 Sep 2017
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0035   0036    110          0035        0001  
0138   0138    160          0138        0000  
0200   0200    100          0200        0000  
0443   0443    110          0443        0000  
0531   0531    150          0531        0000  
0826   0826    130          0826        0000  
0953   0953    25000        0953        0000  
1014   1020    91000        1014        0006  
1343   1343    1100         1343        0000  
1448   1448    670          1448        0000  
1627   1849    2400         1839        0142  
2201   2202    7900         2202        0001  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak
0452   0549    570          0455