THE CME HAS ARRIVED, GEOMAGNETIC STORMS IN PROGRESS:
A CME has just hit Earth's magnetic field (Sept.7th at ~2300 UT). This is the debris from Wednesday's decade-class X9 solar flare. It arrived earlier than expected, confirming that the storm cloud is both fast and potent. A severe G4-class geomagnetic storm is in progress as our planet's magnetic field reverberates from the impact. Free: Aurora Alerts
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According to this model, auroras could be visible in northern-tier US states from Maine to Washington after local nightfall. Glare from the full Moon will mitigate visibility to some degree, but the intensity of the geomagnetic storm might overwhelm the moonlight.
THE FLARES CONTINUE: Sunspot AR2673 remained active on Sept. 7th, producing three M-class flares (M2.4, M1.4, M7.3) and another X-flare (X1.3). Unlike yesterday's monster X9-flare, however, none of today's explosions have hurled a significant CME toward Earth. Ham radio operators may be noticing the effects of these most recent flares in the form of minor shortwave blackouts and strange propagation effects.
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant
disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels:
active,
minor storm,
severe storm
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0-24 hr
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24-48 hr
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ACTIVE
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15 %
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15 %
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MINOR
|
35 %
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35 %
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SEVERE
|
50 %
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50 %
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|
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0-24 hr
|
24-48 hr
|
|
ACTIVE
|
10 %
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10 %
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MINOR
|
20 %
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25 %
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|
SEVERE
|
55 %
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60 %
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