What is a mega-tsunami and can it
happen today?
The following is a position paper that was issued by the Tsunami Society
concerning the occurrence of Mega-Tsunamis:
The mission of the Tsunami Society includes "the dissemination of knowledge
about tsunamis to scientists, officials, and the public". We have
established a committee of private, university, and government scientists to
accomplish part of this goal by correcting misleading or invalid information
released to public about this hazard. We can supply both valid, correct and
important information and advice to the public, and the names of reputable
scientists active in the field of tsunami, who can provide such information.
Most recently, the Discovery Channel has replayed a program alleging potential
destruction of coastal areas of the Atlantic by tsunami waves which might be
generated in the near future by a volcanic collapse in the Canary Islands. Other
reports have involved a smaller but similar catastrophe from Kilauea volcano on
the island of Hawai`i. They like to call these occurences "mega
tsunamis". We would like to halt the scaremongering from these unfounded
reports. We wish to provide the media with factual information so that the
public can be properly informed about actual hazards of tsunamis and their
mitigation.
Here are a set of facts, agreed on by committee members, about the claims in
these reports:
- While the active volcano of Cumbre Vieja on Las Palma is expected to erupt
again, it will not send a large part of the island into the ocean, though small
landslides may occur. The Discovery program does not bring out in the interviews
that such volcanic collapses are extremely rare events, separated in geologic
time by thousands or even millions of years.
- No such event - a mega tsunami - has occurred in either the Atlantic or
Pacific oceans in recorded history. NONE.
- The colossal collapses of Krakatau or Santorin (the two most similar known
happenings) generated catastrophic waves in the immediate area but hazardous
waves did not propagate to distant shores. Carefully performed numerical and
experimental model experiments on such events and of the postulated Las Palma
event verify that the relatively short waves from these small, though intense,
occurrences do not travel as do tsunami waves from a major earthquake.
- The U.S. volcano observatory, situated on Kilauea, near the current eruption,
states that there is no likelihood of that part of the island breaking off into
the ocean.
- These considerations have been published in journals and discussed at
conferences sponsored by the Tsunami Society.
Some papers on this subject include:
"Evaluation of the threat of Mega Tsunami Generation From ....Volcanoes on
La Palma ... and Hawaii", George Pararas-Carayannis, in Science of Tsunami
Hazards, Vol 20, No.5, pages 251-277, 2002.
"Modeling the La Palma Landslide Tsunami", Charles L. Mader, in
Science of Tsunami Hazards, Vol. 19, No. 3, pages 160-180, 2001.
"Volcano Growth and the Evolution of the Island of Hawaii", J.G. Moore
and D.A.Clague, in the Geologic Society of America Bulletin, 104, 1992.
Committee members for this report include:
Mr. George Curtis, Hilo, HI (Committee Chairman) 808-963-6670
Dr. Tad Murty, Ottawa, Canada, 613-731-8900
Dr. Laura Kong, Honolulu, HI, 808-532-6423
Dr. George Pararas-Carayannis, Honolulu, HI, 808-943-1150
Dr. Charles L. Mader, Los Alamos, NM, 808-396-9855
and all can comment on this or other tsunami matters.
For information regarding the Tsunami Society and its publications, visit: www.sthjournal.org
.
For general and educational material on tsunamis, check: www.tsunami.org
.
*Questions 1-12 from IOC(UNESCO) Tsunami Press Kit, IOC/ITSU-XVIII/15,
Paris, 28 September 2001.
National Weather Service
International Tsunami Information Center
737 Bishop Street Suite 2200
Honolulu, HI 96813
ITIC E-mail: itic.tsunami@noaa.gov
Webmaster E-mail: W-ITIC.Webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified:
Wednesday, December 1, 2004 12:50 PM